Dexur has a 98% predictive accuracy in 2023 CMS Star Ratings

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Dexur makes predictions on CMS Star Ratings every year. These CMS Star Rating predictions along with the group summary score are freely available for any hospital to review by searching for their hospital on You can also go through any Hospital’s CMS Star Rating predictions and group summary by browsing through state pages.

CMS just released its 2023 CMS Star Ratings on July 26, 2023. Based on the data files, released Dexur compared its CMS Star Rating predictions made in Jan / Feb 2023 to actual CMS published files and the details of comparison are shown below.

The key stats are given below:

  1. Dexur made a prediction on 2926 Hospitals

  2. Dexur correctly forecasted the CMS Star Rating in 2874 Hospitals (Green Highlighted in below table)

  3. Therefore, Dexur has a 98% (2874/2926) predictive accuracy for 2023 CMS Star Ratings

  4. 52 Hospitals (Highlighted in pink in the below table) were incorrectly forecasted

Dexur believes in transparency of its prediction accuracy and therefore all predictions are easily accessible for anyone to review and validate.

We want to emphasize that the comparison made between the CMS Star Rating predictions and the actual published files was based on the January 2023 data, and our algorithms were updated in January/February 2023. It's important to note that in both July and October 2022, we provided "Guidance, Strengths, and Weaknesses" to hospitals. However, this guidance is not intended to be treated as final predictions, as it does not encompass the conclusive data or all the measures included in the algorithm. Consequently, the guidance provided in July/October 2022 is expected to have a lower predictive accuracy due to its preliminary nature.

The high predictive accuracy rate of 98% indicates that Dexur's predictive model can be used by hospitals in simulations, goal settings and other quality improvement initiatives to improve CMS Star Ratings and associated measures.