By: Debasish Choudhury  May. 28, 2021

Antelope Valley Hospital, Lancaster, CA, reported a CMS Value Based Purchasing (VBP) adjustment factor of 0.9922 in the year 2021, which could result in an estimated penalty of $284,225. Medicare Spending Per Beneficiary (MSPB) accounts for 25% of overall VBP score and is a significant factor in driving VBP payments. MSPB costs include the costs from 3 days before hospitalization, index hospital stays, and 30 days post-discharge. The measure score of the Efficiency & Cost Reduction domain for Antelope Valley Hospital during the period was 0/10. Dexur is an approved purchaser of CMS Medicare claims data and based on our simulator, we estimate that Antelope Valley Hospital can avoid VBP penalties by reducing MSPB Cost by 9.6%.

Antelope Valley Hospital’s average MSPB cost per episode (risk adjusted and price standardized) for the period of January 2019 to December 2019 was $22,747.The average cost of post Index Stays was $12,385 with a total of 2,093 episodes.

Dexur Simulator for MSPB Cost Reduction

Antelope Valley Hospital can achieve the break-even VBP adjustment factor of 1 by earning 5 points in MSPB and thereby avoid VBP penalties to achieve incentives. Hospitals need to reduce post Index hospitalization costs to meet these MSPB reduction targets. Dexur’s simulator has identified four main levers and estimated reduction in each of these levers to reduce MSPB to the target levels and ultimately achieve a positive MSPB score:

• Reduction in rehospitalizations: 24% shift can cause 2.6% reduction in MSPB cost and impacts 69 episodes.

• Shift from SNF discharge to home: 24% shift causes 3.7% reduction in average MSPB cost and impacts 101 episodes.

• Shift from SNF discharge to Home Health Agency: 24% shift causes 3.1% reduction in average MSPB cost and impacts 101 episodes.

• Shift from Home Health Agency to Home: 24% shift results in 0.2% reduction in average MSPB cost and impacts 41 episodes.

In Summary, the four levers impact 312 episodes and reduce MSPB costs by 9.6% and improve the MSPB performance rate to 0.926. This increases the VBP adjustment factor to 1.0002 and helps attain an incentive of $7,287.

A higher reduction in Post Index stay costs can further improve the VBP score to attain incentives. For example, a 35% reduction in post index stay costs can reduce the average MSPB cost by 14.0%, and earn a VBP Adjustment Factor of 1.005, thereby achieving an incentive of $182.2k.